"The critical question is the price level of homes in the United States, which are almost certainly going to fall," Greenspan said, as the hefty inventory of unsold homes continues to drive down prices. "What we don't know at this stage is whether, in fact, the decline in home prices will be a large one or a modest one," he said.

Given the current climate, the odds that the United States will skirt a recession now look better than 50/50, Greenspan said. In March, he put the odds of a recession over the next six to nine months at one-third, but that could be offset by stock market prices if they continue to rise, he said.

Greenspan also addressed the credit crisis that roiled markets this summer, noting that credit market adjustments were "an accident waiting to happen" given the low level of credit spreads for such a long period of time.

"History always suggests that that does not last," Greenspan said. "If it wasn't subprime, it would have been something else."

The United States came into the credit crisis amid a "fairly strong" global economic upswing, and talking about the U.S. economy without the worldwide context is "no longer relevant," he said.

Turning to China, Greenspan said growth there has been "quite remarkable," adding that "nobody is fully cognizant or understands why they have done so well for so long." China has moved dramatically toward capitalism, he said, and even though its economy appears to be "overheating," the country continues to progress.

Greenspan also said rising Chinese inflation was of little significance, noting that much of the increase was due to rising food prices.

But, he added, "at some point, they've got to slow down" and other areas of eastern Asia could begin to successfully compete with the country. At least through the Olympics, however, China "should do very well," he said.

Since August, Mattel has announced three separate recalls of some 21 million toys because of dangers to children from lead paint or from tiny magnets that can be harmful if swallowed.

Attorneys representing the Sterling Heights, Mich., police and fire pension fund allege that Mattel knew about the defects for months but failed to report them to the Consumer Product Safety Commission, as required by federal law. They allege that the company has withheld information about its products from the commission for years in order to prop up sales and avoid fines, thereby artificially inflating the value of Mattel's shares and breaching their fiduciary duties to shareholders.

Officials with El Segundo, Calif.-based Mattel did not immediately respond to a telephone call and e-mail seeking comment on the lawsuit.

The law requires annual math and reading tests in grades three through eight and once in high school. Schools that miss benchmarks face increasingly tough consequences, such as having to replace their curriculum, teachers or principals.

Earlier, Bush and Education Secretary Margaret Spellings met with civil rights leaders, educators and advocates for minority and disadvantaged students.

Almost everyone agrees the law should be changed to encourage schools to measure individual student progress over time instead of using snapshot comparisons of certain grade levels.

There also is broad agreement that the law should be changed so that schools that miss progress goals by a little don't face the same consequences as schools that miss them by a lot.

There are, however, deep divisions over some proposed changes, including merit pay for teachers and whether schools should be judged based on test scores in subjects other than reading and math.

Opponents to some of the legislative proposals come from the conservative and liberal wings of Congress.

National Urban League President Marc Morial, who was in the meeting with Bush, said the law hasn't been funded even to the levels authorized in the original legislation. But he and others did not lay the blame entirely at Bush's feet.

"Both Congress and the president should make the collective funding of this act a priority," Morial said.

Morial said he and others also talked to Bush about addressing the disparity in the amount of money committed to educating children in different parts of the country, and about strengthening a provision in the law calling for after-school services to help children who fall behind.

Bush listed several ways for enhancing the law:

_Give local leaders more flexibility and resources.

_Offer other educational options to families of children stuck in low-performing schools.

_Increase access to tutoring programs.

_Reward good teachers who improve student achievement in low-income schools.

_Expand access to advanced placement courses.

_Improve math and science instruction.

The president noted national test results released last month that showed elementary and middle schoolers posting across-the-board gains in math and more modest improvements in reading. But he also noted that nearly half of Hispanic and black students still do not graduate from high school on time.

The Commission charges that Dawson primarily ripped off his elderly clients in Long Island, NY. As their financial advisor, he recommended that they surrender their variable annuity policies and mortgage their residences. Then he told them to transfer the proceeds to Ethan Thomas for Dawson to manage through BMG.

To get them to agree, Dawson allegedly lied about his investments and how he planned to use their funds. He promised guaranteed returns of between 12% and 15%, and told clients that he would arrange to either pay their mortgages, or pay out monthly returns on the investments they made. In cases where the guaranteed return exceeded the client's mortgage payments, he claimed the excess return would accrue in the client's account.

But instead of investing the money as promised, Dawson misappropriated his clients’ money for his own use. He directly withdrew at least $100,000 of client assets for his personal use.

By March of 2006, he was pushing his clients for fresh infusions of cash just to keep making the mortgage payments he had promised to make.

It appears that the scheme began collapsing in earnest in the summer of 2006. Between August 17 and 23, 2006, the bank servicing the account intended to make Dawson's mortgage payments returned twenty-one checks for insufficient funds, totaling approximately $172,176. By October of 2006, some investors began receiving notices that their mortgages were not being paid. But when they complained to Dawson, who refused to return their calls, and closed down BMG's office.

Then, on November 7, 2006, Dawson attempted to commit suicide. After being briefly

Hospitalized, he was released on November 17, 2006.

One example of Dawson's fraud involved a 64-year old investor. In 2004, he recommended that the investor refinance his New York home. The investor then lived in Long Island and had been Dawson's client for approximately ten years. Dawson advised the investor to transfer the a large chunk of the proceeds from the refinancing to a "special account" at one of Dawson's firms. He guaranteed the investor a 15% return and promised to make the mortgage payments on the investor's Long Island residence from the investment returns of the "special account." By 2005, that investor had transferred approximately $700,000 to Dawson for his firms to manage.

In October 2006, Dawson sent that investor a BMG fax claiming: "Your certified balance of funds as of March 24,2006 are $884,522.14. The funds are managed by BMG Advisory Services, Ltd." The letter was an utter lie, according to the Commission.

The Commission is also seeking disgorgement of all ill-gotten gains and civil penalties, as well as additional relief, including orders permanently enjoining Dawson from committing future violations of the foregoing federal securities laws.

Michael Devlin, 41, pleaded guilty to kidnapping, sexually assaulting and attempting to murder Shawn Hornbeck, and received multiple life sentences. He pleaded guilty Monday to kidnapping another boy, and is expected to enter more guilty pleas in other courts.

During Tuesday's hearing, Devlin — standing just feet away from Shawn's weeping parents — admitted in graphic detail how he abducted Shawn in 2002. He described the point at which the boy apparently turned from being an abduction victim to a captive forced to stay alive by following Devlin's horrific orders.

After Shawn was abducted at gunpoint while riding his bike in rural Washington County, Devlin took the then-11-year-old to his apartment in suburban St. Louis where he repeatedly sexually assaulted the boy. Days later, Devlin took Shawn back to rural Washington County in his pickup truck, apparently intent on killing him.

He said he pulled Shawn from his truck and began to strangle him. Shawn resisted.

"I attempted to kill (Shawn) and he talked me out of it," Devlin said.

Devlin stopped the choking, but then sexually assaulted the boy again. Prosecutors said it was at that point that Shawn told Devlin he would do whatever was asked of him in order to stay alive.

"This boy made this contract, this deal with the devil, only to survive," Washington County prosecutor John Rupp said.

Devlin kidnapped William "Ben" Ownby in January, and police who found Ben four days after he was taken were shocked to discover a 15-year-old Shawn in Devlin's apartment.

Devlin pleaded guilty Monday to one charge of child kidnapping and one charge of armed criminal action in Ben's abduction.

Prosecutors said the combined pleas mean Devlin will not be eligible for parole until he is more than 100 years old. He was sentenced to three life terms plus 60 years in prison Tuesday, in addition to a life sentence he received Monday.

Rupp said he was satisfied with the sentences Devlin received.

"You heard it from his own mouth. You've heard what kind of a monster he is," Rupp said after the hearing.

Devlin's defense attorneys and Shawn's parents declined to comment Tuesday. Devlin was expected to plead guilty later Tuesday in St. Louis County to 71 felony charges, including kidnapping and sexual assault, and was to appear in federal court in St. Louis by Wednesday.

Devlin's attorneys have said he accepted a plea deal after reviewing the massive body of evidence collected by state and federal authorities. The boys' families said they were relieved because the pleas will spare the teens from testifying and reliving the ordeal.

"Nothing good could have come from a trial," said defense attorney Michael Kielty. "The evidence ... is just absolutely overwhelming."

While it is The Associated Press' policy not to identify suspected victims of sexual abuse in most cases, the story of Shawn and Ben has been widely publicized and their names are well known.

A judge began criminal contempt-of-court proceedings against Brown on Tuesday, just three days after he agreed to pay nearly $7 million to settle the lawsuits that led to contempt allegations surrounding Brown's decision to send the church official to Canada.

Before the hearing, plaintiffs' lawyers said they expected the judge to dismiss the contempt filing because the case had been settled. But Diocese of Orange attorney Peter Callahan insisted the proceedings go forward to clear the bishop's name, and Judge Gail Andler took him up on the offer.

Brown waived his arraignment, which lawyers said was the equivalent of a not guilty plea.

"This is one more example of the diocese stepping in their own mess," said John Manly, a lawyer for the plaintiffs in the case. "Now we can have our cake and eat it too."

Plaintiffs' attorneys had accused Brown of sending Msgr. John Urell to Ontario, Canada, for medical treatment before he could complete a deposition in one of four cases settled Friday. The monsignor was responsible for handling sexual abuse allegations against the diocese.

Brown testified in a pretrial deposition that he made the decision to send Urell to the Southdown Institute, although he knew Urell "had given a deposition and was going to be called back for further deposition."

He said Tuesday the facility is one of few that specializes in psychological care for clergy and because it could take him immediately.

Andler allowed attorneys to deliver their opening statements in the contempt case before postponing the rest of the hearing until Dec. 3. She said a subpoena for Urell's testimony would remain in effect until that date.

Callahan will argue at the hearing to dismiss the contempt matter.

Venus Soltan, a plaintiffs attorney, said Brown sent Urell away to suppress critical evidence about the diocese's handling of sexual abuse. Urell went away a week after he broke down during his deposition by plaintiffs' attorneys.

"When Msgr. Urell was there for half a day, he couldn't take it because he was too upset about having to testify about hiding all these allegations," she said in court. "This is plain and simply hiding the facts."

Callahan, however, said there was no evidence that a court order was in effect when Brown sent Urell away and asserted that a plaintiffs' attorney had verged on perjury in the court filings that precipitated the contempt hearing.

Urell knew nothing about the current case, which involved allegations that a lay assistant basketball coach molested a 16-year-old girl at Mater Dei High School, Callahan said.

"I was disappointed that the judge didn't rule. We were hoping that the bishop would have the opportunity to exonerate himself by telling the truth but he didn't get the opportunity," he said.

At a news conference outside court, two of the young women who were plaintiffs in the cases angrily asked Brown and his attorneys questions about how church officials handled their cases.

Brown did not respond to the questions directly, but apologized.

"To both of you, and to the other victims, all I can do is repeat once again, my sincerest and deepest and most compassionate apology on the part of the church for what happened to you, which was terrible and sinful and criminal and reprehensible," Brown said. "I'm just so very sorry it happened."

Three years ago, Brown agreed to pay $100 million to settle lawsuits from about 90 sexual abuse victims.